The risks of waiting another year are concrete, and most of them can be priced before the year begins. Carrying a luxury home here runs to thousands of dollars a month, with six months of market time valued at 40,000 to 90,000 dollars in the research ledger, so a full year of waiting carries roughly double that exposure before anything goes wrong. Beyond cost, the waiting seller accepts price risk in a national market already cutting 26.9 percent of listings, condition risk on a 30 to 40 year old house, and forecast risk, since no verified 2027 price outlook for this ZIP exists in the source material (Zillow, 2025; Frontier Capitals, 2026). Against those risks stands todays documented demand, with builders acquiring 52.6 percent of sampled older homes.
Key Findings
- Six months of luxury market time costs 40,000 to 90,000 dollars in holding expense, putting a year of waiting near 80,000 to 180,000 dollars at the same run rate (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
- No verified 2027 price forecast for this ZIP exists, so the waiting seller is exposed to a year whose prices nobody has credibly published (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
- Price cuts touched 26.9 percent of United States listings in October 2025, with a typical cumulative reduction of 25,000 dollars (Zillow, 2025).
- Inspection repair credits on 30 to 40 year old luxury homes often run 20,000 to 60,000 dollars, and another year of ageing does not shrink that exposure (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
- Builders currently acquire 52.6 percent of sampled older homes, a demand level the waiting seller assumes will still be there in a year (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
What does the carrying risk look like in detail?
Carrying risk is the certain part of waiting, and its components are unglamorous. HOA dues continue inside the guard-gated communities. Insurance continues, and vacancy clauses often raise the premium on a home nobody sleeps in. Pool service and a landscape contract continue because a neglected desert property loses value faster than the service bills cost. Climate control utilities continue through a Scottsdale summer to protect the house itself, and property taxes fall due on schedule. For seasonal owners there is an operational layer too, since showings on a vacant home need a local keyholder and cleaning on standby. The research ledger totals six months of that stack at 40,000 to 90,000 dollars for a listed luxury home, and a year of pure waiting, even without listing, carries most of the same stack (Frontier Capitals, 2026). Owners routinely underestimate this risk because it leaves the account in monthly pieces rather than one memorable cheque. That line of evidence continues in whether selling in 2026 beats waiting until 2027, read alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year.
What price and condition risks does a year add?
Price risk is the exposure to a market the seller does not control. The national evidence describes a market already disciplining sellers, with over a quarter of listings cutting prices and the typical sold home taking 46 days to find a buyer (Zillow, 2025; Redfin, 2026). A year is long enough for finished values in North Scottsdale to soften, which would flow directly into builder residuals and therefore into land bids for older homes (Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, 2025). Condition risk compounds quietly beside it. A house sampled among pre-1981 stock carries roofs, pool equipment, plumbing and climate systems whose remaining life shortens every season, and the inspection credits those systems attract, commonly 20,000 to 60,000 dollars, grow rather than shrink with time. Even the tax and record side can shift, since county assessments follow lot and zoning drivers that do not pause for an owners indecision (Maricopa County Assessor, 2026).
Who can afford to carry these risks, and who cannot?
Risk capacity differs by owner. A resident owner who loves the house, uses it daily and carries low costs can rationally hold every risk on this list, because the year of waiting is also a year of living there. A seasonal owner paying the full vacant stack for a home used a few weeks a year carries the same risks for a fraction of the benefit. An estate, a relocating household or an owner of a dated home whose value sits mainly in the lot carries the worst ratio of all, since nothing about another year improves a property the market reads as land (Maricopa County Recorder, 2026). The median seller nationally had owned for 11 years by 2025, which suggests many owners default into waiting out of habit rather than analysis (National Association of Realtors, 2025). The purpose of itemising the risks is to make the wait a decision, with a price attached, instead of a default.
How should the sample behind these conclusions be read?
The sample compiled for this report covers 38 older homes in ZIP code 85262, all built before 1981, inside the guard-gated golf communities of Troon, Troon North and Desert Mountain in North Scottsdale, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year (Frontier Capitals, 2026). Twenty of those homes were acquired by builders and eighteen were not, which gives the study both a professional demand reading and a household market reading from the same streets, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms. The minimum lot in the sample was 8,332 square feet, yet many parcels run to half an acre or more, so the sample spans compact gated lots and substantial estate parcels alike, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect. Figures drawn from a sample of this size describe the sampled streets rather than every address in the ZIP, and this report treats them that way throughout, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year. Ranked against the wider study, this neighbourhood stands 22 of 189, which places its builder demand and pricing behaviour near the top of the national comparison set, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
Why does land carry so much of the value here?
County assessment practice in this area is driven primarily by lot size and zoning classification, which formalises what buyers already know, that the parcel is the asset, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms (Maricopa County Assessor, 2026). The research describes land value here as three separate assets priced together: the dirt itself, the view the parcel commands and any golf frontage it holds, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect. A view lot and an interior lot of identical size can differ by several hundred thousand dollars in the land bid, because the view cannot be manufactured later while a house can always be rebuilt, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year. Remaining vacant land inside the gates is limited, so nearly every new position in Troon, Troon North or Desert Mountain must be assembled by purchasing an existing home, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year. That structural scarcity is the quiet engine beneath many of the figures quoted in this report, and it operates in every season, and that matters for the risks carried by waiting one more year. A companion analysis follows in whether prices will drop in 2027, taking up the neighbouring side of the risks carried by waiting one more year.
What does a listed sale really cost beyond the price?
The research ledger prices a listed sale at 2,400,000 dollars in full, and the deductions stack quickly, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect (National Association of Realtors, 2025). Commission at 5 to 6 percent takes 120,000 to 144,000 dollars, and seller side closing costs such as title, transfer fees, HOA transfer charges and prorations commonly add another 1 to 2 percent, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year. Staging, photography and pre-listing cosmetic work on luxury listings routinely run 15,000 to 40,000 dollars before the first offer arrives, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year. Inspection repair credits and price reductions on 30 to 40 year old luxury homes often add 20,000 to 60,000 dollars more, and carrying the property through three to nine months of market time costs thousands per month, and that matters for the risks carried by waiting one more year. The ledger concludes that a 2,400,000 dollar list price nets the seller something in the low 2,100,000s after a normal luxury market cycle, before any price reduction, which is the comparison every alternative route should be measured against, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year.
How does national market pace colour the local picture?
National pace figures give local sellers a realistic clock, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year. The typical United States home that sold spent 46 days on market in the four weeks ending September 13, 2026, and the typical home took 54 days to go under contract in late January 2025, the slowest span since March 2020, against 35 days at the 2022 peak, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year (Redfin, 2026; Redfin, 2025). The July 2025 existing home sales report recorded a 28 day median time on market, which shows how quickly the national tempo can swing between seasons, and that matters for the risks carried by waiting one more year (National Association of Realtors, 2025). Local luxury product moves more slowly than those national figures suggest, because the buyer pool for a guard-gated golf community is deliberately narrow, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year. National data from the Census Bureau on new residential sales and county housing adds the supply backdrop against which that pace plays out, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms (U.S. Census Bureau, 2025). A seller who plans around the national tempo rather than the luxury tempo will misjudge both timing and carrying cost, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect. Related evidence is gathered in whether now is a good time to sell, which bears on the risks carried by waiting one more year from another angle.
Why does the 128.9 percent ratio need careful handling?
The average older home in the sample changed hands at 128.9 percent of the price of new construction on a comparable lot, one of only a handful of above 100 percent ratios across the 189 neighbourhood study, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year (Frontier Capitals, 2026). That figure blends two markets sharing one ZIP: dated luxury homes that sell near land value to builders, and updated or well located custom estates that sell at premiums above new construction, and that matters for the risks carried by waiting one more year. The average therefore describes the mix, not a promise for any single home, and an owner who applies it directly to a dated interior will overprice, while an owner who ignores it for a premium estate may underprice, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year. Eighteen of the 38 sampled homes were not acquired by builders and did not sell at discounts, which is the statistical footprint of that second market, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms. Reading the ratio as a blend is the difference between using the study and being misled by it, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect. The wider picture is set out in how long a sale takes, beyond the narrow frame of the risks carried by waiting one more year.
What does selling off-market change for the seller?
Five practical advantages explain why so many sampled sellers chose the direct route when it was offered. Privacy comes first, with zero showings, zero open houses and no public marketing period, so in a guard-gated community where discretion is part of the product the sale stays private until the deed records, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year (Maricopa County Recorder, 2026). Closing is flexible, at 7 to 21 days when speed matters or months out with a leaseback when the household needs time, against 60 to 120 plus days for a listed older luxury home once market time is counted, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms. No commission is charged, which at the typical 5 to 6 percent on a 2,400,000 dollar sale saves 120,000 to 144,000 dollars outright, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect (National Association of Realtors, 2025). No seller closing costs are charged either, removing the typical 1 to 2 percent those items consume, and together commissions and closing costs commonly exceed 140,000 dollars on a 2,400,000 dollar sale, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year. The sale is as is, with no inspections and no repairs, so the 10,000 to 30,000 dollar repair credits or price reductions that follow inspections on older homes never arise, which is central to the risks carried by waiting one more year. Frontier Capitals sources off-market deals to builders and places each property with a vetted builder; it is a wholesaler in that chain and never claims to be a builder itself, a disclosure made plainly here because sellers are entitled to know exactly who is buying and why, on the waiting risk question included.
Methodology and limitations
On the waiting risk question, this report draws on the sample compiled for this study, covering 38 pre-1981 homes in ZIP code 85262 of which builders acquired 20, together with closing archives, county parcel and deed records and the national series cited in the text (Frontier Capitals, 2026; Maricopa County Assessor, 2026; Maricopa County Recorder, 2026). Each risk is priced from the research ledger or a cited national series where a price exists, and left qualitative where the source material offers no figure. Several limits apply to everything concluded here, a fact worth weighing alongside the risks carried by waiting one more year. The sample describes the sampled streets rather than every property in Troon, Troon North, Troon Village or Desert Mountain, and individual homes fall on both sides of every average for reasons of condition, position and lot quality that a sample cannot rank, which frames the risks carried by waiting one more year in practical terms. No property was inspected and no appraisal was performed for this report, and worked figures drawn from the research illustration are labelled as simplified arithmetic rather than promised outcomes, and it shapes the risks carried by waiting one more year more than most owners expect. Where the source material contains no figure for a question, the report says so and answers by method instead, a point that bears directly on the risks carried by waiting one more year.
Conclusion
Waiting another year to sell a Troon or Desert Mountain house is not a neutral pause. It is a priced position carrying roughly 80,000 to 180,000 dollars of holding exposure at the research run rate, plus price risk in a discounting national market, plus condition risk on an ageing house, all staked on a 2027 market that no verified source has forecast (Frontier Capitals, 2026; Zillow, 2025). Some owners can carry that position comfortably, and this report names them. Owners who cannot, or who simply prefer certainty, are selling into documented demand today for a reason. For a personal costing of the wait, telephone Frontier Capitals at 401-219-4207 or email [email protected].
What would the next year have to pay you, in certain money, to make its risks worth carrying?
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the single largest risk of waiting a year?
Carrying cost, because it is certain. At the research run rate, a year exposes the owner to roughly 80,000 to 180,000 dollars of dues, insurance, services, utilities and taxes, whether prices rise, fall or stall.
Could waiting a year actually pay off?
It could, if prices rose enough to exceed the carrying bill and any added repair exposure. The problem is evidential: no verified 2027 forecast for this ZIP exists to support counting on that rise (Frontier Capitals, 2026).
Does waiting risk apply to a direct sale too?
Only until terms are agreed. A direct closing in 7 to 21 days ends the exposure quickly, and a scheduled closing with leaseback lets an owner lock the price while keeping use of the home.
What if my home is appreciating as land?
Land inside the gates is scarce and position value is durable, but land appreciation must still outrun the carrying stack to profit the waiting owner, and the stack on a luxury parcel is unusually heavy.
How can I reduce waiting risk without selling today?
Price the wait honestly, keep systems maintained so inspection exposure does not grow, and obtain a current direct valuation so the decision compares real numbers rather than impressions (Maricopa County Recorder, 2026).
Sources
- Zillow, 2025. Consumer Housing Trends Report 2025: Sellers. Market data.
- Frontier Capitals, 2026. 189 neighborhood builder acquisition sample: 38 homes sampled in 85262, 20 acquired by builders, average older home price 128.9 percent of new build. Market data.
- Redfin, 2026. Recently sold homes and new construction, ZIP code 85262, Scottsdale AZ. Market data.
- Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, 2025. North Scottsdale luxury market statistics. Industry report.
- Maricopa County Assessor, 2026. Parcel and permit records, Scottsdale AZ. Official record.
- Maricopa County Recorder, 2026. Recorded deeds and transaction records, Scottsdale AZ. Official record.
- National Association of Realtors, 2025. Typical seller commission structures, Phoenix-Mesa market. Industry report.
- Redfin, 2025. Real estate commissions report, May 2025. Market data.
- U.S. Census Bureau, 2025. QuickFacts: Maricopa County, Arizona. Government data.
- Redfin, 2026. Housing market update: typical sold home spent 46 days on market. Market data.